Nicușor Dan, the current Mayor of Bucharest, was elected President of Romania on May 18, 2025, triggering a mayoral by-election expected within 90 days of his departure. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election to become the next elected Mayor of Bucharest. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the by-election will not be considered. If no by-election takes place by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Romanian Government, specifically the Permanent Electoral Authority (https://www.roaep.ro/prezentare/).

The 2025 Dutch general election is scheduled to take place on October 29, 2025. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2025 Dutch general election. If the next Dutch Government after the election is not announced by October 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No Coalition by October 31". A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister. This market may resolve once the first government is officially announced and sworn in by the monarch, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances. The following parties will be to be considered for this market: PVV, GroenLinks–PvdA, VVD, CDA, D66, JA21. All other parties (including but not limited to SP, BBB, NSC, DENK, PvdD, FvD, SGP, CU, and Volt) will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option (along with any other parties), that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. For example: If the governing coalition includes GL–PvdA + VVD + CDA + JA21, but no option explicitly lists those four together, the market will resolve to “VVD + CDA + JA21”. If the governing coalition includes PVV + VVD + CDA + D66, the option “PVV + VVD + CDA + D66” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PVV + VVD + CDA” will resolve to “No". If the governing coalition does not match any listed option (e.g. the governing coalition is D66 + JA21) this market will resolve to “Other”. In the event that multiple market options each contain an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed coalition which received the greater number of valid votes. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of the Netherlands.

This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lisa Cook announces her resignation or otherwise ceases to be a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between August 25, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only official announcements of Cook's resignation or removal made before her term is scheduled to end, made by either Cook or the Board of Governors, will qualify. Announcements from Trump or his administration will not alone qualify. Temporary absences or attempts at termination which do not actually remove Cook from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between January 15 and December 31, 2025 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

On August 15, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in person at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson near Anchorage, Alaska, for a summit focused on potential peace terms in Ukraine. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin meets with Donald Trump on a separate occasion from the August 15, 2025 meeting by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Encounters that are part of, or a continuation of, the August 15 meeting will not qualify, even if they occur on a different day (e.g. August 16). A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Putin and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory (MoV) for Democrat Mikie Sherrill in the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial general election, scheduled for November 4, 2025. For the purpose of resolving this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute percentage-point difference between Sherrill’s certified statewide vote share and the vote share of the runner-up (the candidate with the second-highest number of votes) in the certified results. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If Mikie Sherrill does not receive the most votes statewide in the certified results, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official certified statewide results as published by the New Jersey Division of Elections (New Jersey Department of State). If a recount is initiated prior to certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the results are certified. A recount initiated after certification will not affect market resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between February 18, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment. This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number or percentage of employees that accept the deferred resignation offer by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system. An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark , however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.

This is a market on the prediction of the number of people Trump will deport in 2025.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between September 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between January 20 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration publicly releases any files pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein, which weren’t previously public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying file must contain substantive information pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein. The following will qualify: -Previously released documents in which redactions containing new substantive content such as names of associates or practices directly pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein were removed. -Documents which weren’t previously public which contain information pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein which was already known from previous releases (e.g. a previously unreleased document pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein which mentions Ghislaine Maxwell will qualify even if the information itself isn’t novel) The following will not qualify: -Trivial metadata-only releases, duplicative redactions, or administrative cover sheets without substantive content. -Files which were created after the start of the Trump Administration (January 20, 2025, 12:00 PM ET). -Announcements of declassifications or releases that are not implemented within this market's timeframe. -Releases made exclusively by federal courts (including unsealings), Congress or its committees, state or local governments, private entities, or leaks not officially attributable to the Executive Branch. -Releases made by non-Executive entities, even if based on Executive Branch filings or requests. -Court-ordered FOIA disclosures or FOIA litigation records provided by a court. -Leaked, unofficial, or anonymously sourced disclosures will not qualify For a release to qualify, the Executive Branch must itself publish the files to the public, such as through an official website, public press release, or FOIA reading room. Transmissions to Congress, courts, or other non-Executive entities do not qualify unless the Executive Branch subsequently makes the files publicly accessible. FOIA responses qualify only if the Executive Branch agency itself publicly releases the responsive files. FOIA disclosures published by courts as part of litigation do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not. Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify. The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of Venezuela Nicolás Maduro talks with Donald Trump between October 15 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". A talk is defined as any interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Nicușor Dan, the current Mayor of Bucharest, was elected President of Romania on May 18, 2025, triggering a mayoral by-election expected within 90 days of his departure. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most votes in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election. If no by-election takes place by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Romanian Government, specifically the Permanent Electoral Authority (https://www.roaep.ro/prezentare/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means. An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.

This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections. A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats. A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of Education ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal educational programs managed by the department, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”. Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump, as President of the United States, signs into law a bill that lowers the corporate tax rate in the United States below 21% at any point between January 19 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Note that the cut does not need to go into effect before the resolution date - it just needs to be signed into law by then. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes 750,000 or more non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that creates a ‘DOGE dividend’ by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any cash transfer, tax credit, or other comparable financial transfer which is referred to as a DOGE dividend, or which is otherwise directly funded by savings created by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) will qualify. Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe. Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US federal income tax is eliminated between January 21 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "abolishing the federal income tax" means the elimination of federal income tax obligations for individuals in the US, not merely reductions, suspensions, or alterations to tax rates, brackets, or enforcement policies. The market will not consider executive orders, temporary measures, or proposals that do not become law. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, including announcements from Donald Trump and the IRS, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

The U.S. federal budget deficit for December 2024 was $86,731,619,013.29 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2025 than in December 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Internal Revenue Department ceases operations entirely by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the IRS is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Internal Revenue Service it will count as a "Yes" resolution. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump, as President of the United States, signs into law a bill that lowers the maximum individual tax rate below 37% at any point between January 19 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Note that the cut does not need to go into effect before the resolution date - it just needs to be signed into law by then. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration officially announces that they will be sending US troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must be part of a formal agreement between the United States and another country or international organization or otherwise indicative of a formalized policy. Announcement which are statements of intent, contingent, or otherwise are not indicative of a formalized policy will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count. Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position. Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump and/or Melania Trump announce their intention to divorce between December 31, 2024 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by December 31, 2025 of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market. The resolution source will be statements from Donald Trump and/or Melania Trump , and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to eliminate the federal tax exemption on interest from municipal bonds by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the exemption is eliminated only for specific types or classes of municipal bonds (e.g., only newly issued bonds, only bonds from certain states or localities, or only bonds purchased after a certain date), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market. If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.